Risk-per-trade planner
Pick a risk per trade that your drawdown and daily loss limit can actually absorb, and see what it does to your odds and the number of trades you need.
At your risk
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Losses in a row before max drawdown
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Losses in one day before daily limit
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Net wins needed for target
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Expectancy per trade
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Average trades to target
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Pass odds (approx.)
| Risk | Losses to max DD | Losses per day | Net wins to target | Avg trades | Pass (approx.) |
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How it works
- Losses in a row: the largest number of full losses that keeps you above the limit with your buffer left over. Without a buffer, landing exactly on the limit counts as a breach, as it does at most firms. At 1% risk and a 10% max drawdown that is 9 losses, not 10.
- Max risk for a streak: (limit − buffer) ÷ streak length. Long losing streaks are normal even for good strategies: with a 45% win rate, a run of 8 or more losses somewhere in a few hundred trades is likely, not rare.
- Net wins to target: how many winners in excess of losers it takes, at your reward:risk after costs.
- Expectancy: win rate × reward:risk − loss rate − costs, in R (multiples of your risk).
- Pass odds: a drift-diffusion approximation for a static drawdown: P = (1 − e^(−2μD/σ²)) / (1 − e^(−2μ(T+D)/σ²)), where μ and σ² are the mean and variance of one trade and D is the max drawdown minus your buffer. It ignores the daily limit, trailing drawdowns and time limits, so use the pass-odds calculator for the full picture.
Notice the pattern in the table: with a positive edge, smaller risk raises the pass odds but needs more trades. With no edge, risk barely changes the odds before costs, and costs push the odds down the more trades you take. Read how long losing streaks get and position sizing for prop challenges, then turn the % into lots with the lot size calculator.